SEAN RUSH AGAINST NEWSHUB

The Discussion

10. This complaint falls to be decided under Media Council Principle (1) Accuracy, Fairness and Balance, which states:

Publications should be bound at all times by accuracy, fairness and balance, and should not deliberately mislead or misinform readers by commission or omission. In articles of controversy or disagreement, a fair voice must be given to the opposition view.

11. It is important to note that the Media Council is in no position, and is not being asked to make any comment about the study in question or its accuracy. Rather, we must determine if the Newshub article accurately reports on the scientific paper which records the results of the recent study.
12. That said, it is useful to briefly outline what the scientific paper does. Among other things:

a. It reports the results of a new computer simulated model aiming to predict how the AMOC will operate under different conditions. In this context, it starts with a steady state (reflecting a ‘preindustrial control’) and identifies the points at which change to the AMOC is observable in the model, using years as a measure of the time the model is ‘run’.

b. It identifies the time under the model where a collapse of the AMOC occurs. A tipping point can be seen to begin at around year 1750 of the model and the process continues over the next 100 years. 

c. On the basis of the data provided by the model the authors attempt to identify a physics-based early warning indicator. The importance of this is that it might be used in the real world to predict when a tipping point might be coming. 

d. It attempts to apply this model to the present-day real world AMOC, noting the data suggests it may be on course to tipping and that other studies conducted by different researchers, which suggest a tipping point could occur between real world 2025 and 2095 “could be accurate” (although this needed to be treated with some caution).

It follows that it is clear that the 1750 years referred to by Mr Rush is the point at which a shutdown was observable in the computer simulated model, which measures the passage of time in units of years from a non-real world steady state starting point. It is not saying that we can expect a shutdown 1750 years from today.

13. However, we must still assess whether it was fair and accurate to describe the scientific paper as saying a tipping point could be reached soon. Overall, we think that the Newshub story was not well put together and does appear to take an unnecessarily alarmist tone. It reported on complex and nuanced science and we consider that real care ought to be taken when reporting on the results of this sort of study.
14. However, we do not uphold this complaint because we consider that there is enough in the scientific paper to warrant a description of the research as suggesting a tipping point and shut down could be reached soon. Although the paper does not give specific time frames it does note, and comment on, other research that suggests the present-day AMOC is in its weakest state in over a millennium and approaches a tipping point “before the end of this century”. In part, this is used to justify the need for the research being presented as the authors say there is a need for a “more physics based, observable and reliable early warning indicators”. Importantly, it states that:

By analysing SST-based proxies of the MOC strength, it was suggested [in other cited research] that the real present-day AMOC approaches a tipping point … Because both variance and auto-correlation are increasing in the SST-based AMOC time series in [the other cited research] [that research’s] estimate of the tipping point (2025 to 2095, 95% confidence level) could be accurate.

15. This indicates that the authors of the scientific paper consider that research by others suggesting a tipping point between 2025 and 2095 may be accurate, although they note some caveats. 
16. The ‘soon’ comment must also be read in the context of the whole Newshub article. Immediately before the comment is the observation that the AMOC shut down 12,000 years ago. Shortly after the comment is the statement that “The study adds to the growing body of evidence that the AMOC may be approaching a tipping point and that it could even be close”. As a result, while we accept that the word ‘soon’ will always be open to interpretation, we do not think it was inaccurate or unfair to report that the scientific paper suggests a tipping point could be reached soon. As noted by Warner Bros the scientific paper does indicate that once a tipping point is reached collapse could happen within 100 years. Moreover, the scientific paper indicates that the consequences could be felt very quickly.  The paper also suggests that studies stating this could start between 2025 and 2095 may be accurate. On the basis of this research, it appears that a tipping point and the start of a shutdown could be, but may not, be reached soon.
17. The complaint is not upheld with dissent.

Dissent by Jo Cribb:

In order to determine the accuracy of this article, the Council needed to read and interpret the complex scientific studies that it was based on.  These studies involve complex computational modelling and their findings are nuanced and come with many caveats.  The average reader of this article would not have gone to the source articles and even if they did would have found them exceptionally technical.

There is no denying that climate change is one of the most pressing issues facing humanity.  Reporting on emerging research is incredibly important.  

However, this article is confusing, and potentially leads the readers to conclusions that are not solidly backed up by the research.  Specifically, that the tipping point to climate shut down is 'soon' which an average reader could rightly suggest is this month, or this year, or next is not what the research states.

Council members considering the complaint were Hon. Raynor Asher (Chair), Rosemary Barraclough, Scott Inglis, Marie Shroff, Richard Pamatatau, Alison Thom, Ben France-Hudson, Clio Francis, Hank Schouten, Jo Cribb, Judi Jones, Tim Watkin and Katrina Bennett.